The Should-Be All-Star Game - AL Edition

Rather than kick off this blog with something about law, we might as well devolve it from the outset.

So, it's that time of year, the time that enables people to make specious arguments about who belongs in the Hall of Fame based on a selection process run by two groups of people who are usually hostile to research -- fans and major league managers.

Before the atrocious votes that land Jason Varitek on an all-star team come in...I'll give you the list of the 30 people that should make the roster given the other rules and the usual position allotment.


Baltimore (1): Brian Roberts
Boston (3): Kevin Youkilis, Manny Ramirez, J.D. Drew
Chicago (2): Carlos Quentin*, Jermaine Dye
Cleveland (4): Cliff Lee*, Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta, C.C. Sabathia
Detroit (1): Carlos Guillen
Kansas City (2): David DeJesus, Joakim Soria
Los Angeles (2): Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Saunders
Minnesota (3): Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Joe Nathan
New York (3): Jason Giambi*, Alex Rodriguez*, Mariano Rivera
Oakland (2): Justin Duchscherer, Rich Harden
Seattle (1): Brandon Morrow
Tampa Bay (3): Dioner Navarro, Evan Longoria, Scott Kazmir
Texas (4): Milton Bradley* (DH), Josh Hamilton*, Ian Kinsler*, Michael Young*
Toronto (1): Roy Halladay

Catchers (2): Joe Mauer*, Dioner Navarro
First Basemen (3): Jason Giambi*, Kevin Youkilis, Justin Morneau
Second Basemen (2): Ian Kinsler*, Brian Roberts
Shortstop (2): Michael Young*, Jhonny Peralta
Third Basemen (2): Alex Rodriguez*, Evan Longoria, Carlos Guillen
Outfield/DH (7): Josh Hamilton*, Milton Bradley (DH)*, Carlos Quentin*, Grady Sizemore*, J.D. Drew, David DeJesus, Jermaine Dye, Manny Ramirez
Starting Pitchers (7): Cliff Lee*, Justin Duchscherer, Roy Halladay, Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir, Joe Saunders, C.C. Sabathia
Relief pitchers (5): Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Brandon Morrow, Joakim Soria, Joe Nathan

Close calls:
Sabathia over Beckett - Like last year's Cy Young dispute, only this time, there's actually a dispute to be had. Sabathia had an awful April, which we can't write off entirely. But he's been the dominant starter at times this year, Beckett has been...good. That's it. Beckett doesn't go deep into games, and despite Sabathia being the most hittable pitcher on earth for one month, he's pitched 22 innings more than Beckett. He's also got a huge edge in strikeouts (22). Working in Beckett's favor is that the Indians don't warrant having this many All-Stars...they're a last place team...and Sabathia will get traded to the NL twelve seconds after making the team. Francona may choose Beckett for the honor, or he may just load up his team with other AL rosters' players in order to give his guys a rest. The real solution here is to take the pitcher who most deserves to be on the team (if he'd stayed healthy) over both these guys, but John Lackey's made a whopping nine starts.

#2 shortstop - Let's be frank, zero shortstops deserve to play in the All-Star Game in the American League. ZERO. But two will, just because that's how things work. Young is the clear winner. The second place finisher is a close contest offensively, but the tell-all number slightly favors Peralta.

Peralta: .253 avg, .303 OBP, 47 runs, 12 HR, 36 RBI, .747 OPS
Jeter: .279 avg. (+.026), .342 OBP (+.039), 48 runs (+1), 4 HR (-8), 35 RBI (-1), .736 OPS (-.011)

The first two categories scream "Jeter!". Then you look at the punchless slugging of Jeter and it becomes a lot more even. Moreover, while it's not entirely fair to punish a player for being on a good team, providing the kind of numbers Jeter gets is a heck of a lot easier when you have Bobby Abreu OPS .802 right behind you followed by Alex Rodriguez (for most of the season). Then...Matsui, Posada (about half the season), Jason Giambi, hell, even Wilson Betemit (also superior OPS to Jeter, so perhaps the Yankees should be considering a switch at shortstop?).

As much as this has been a down year for Abreu, his .802 OPS would make him the third best eligible hitter on the Indians squad. He's the fifth on the Yankees. That kind of production really inflates Jeter's opportunity to get good pitches to hit, since they'd rather take their chances with him. Peralta has the comfort of knowing that batting behind him has been the likes of Ryan Garko (and his satanic .666 OPS).

The difference in defense is pretty surprising, even to someone who regards Jeter as the most overrated player in baseball. Jeter just doesn't get to balls. Period. Range factor of 4.01, zone rating of .828. Compare that to Peralta -- Range factor of 4.72! and a zone rating of .833. The range factor owes in part to the Indians' sinkerballing pitchers Carmona and Westbrook, both of whom are on the DL, so it may not be just that (that said, there is still Aaron Laffey), but even with that zone, Peralta gets to more balls, and has a superior fielding percentage, to the questionable extent that should even be considered. Peralta's also been more involved in double plays (57 to Jeter's 38), but this again may be tainted by the sinker-oriented staff the Indians have -- I doubt the difference is that vast. Answer: it isn't. The Indians have turned 96 double plays, 57 involving Peralta (59%), the Yankees have turned 74 (38 of which involved Jeter (51.3%). So Peralta is probably a notch better at turning double plays.

This is all mooted by the first point I made...the people voting for this rarely care about baseball reality -- they vote for people they know, people who they see on TV, people who are on their favorite teams. This means Jeter has been elected to the All-Star game, though in fact, he's the third best candidate, and this year, that makes him (like Peralta) utterly unworthy of the All-Star nod.

#2 Catcher Rather than belabor this point, Navarro has played most of his team's games, Rod Barajas has been a fill-in who's not even eligible for the batting title. Navarro also plays for a team who's underrepresented by the roster I've cobbled together, which breaks the tie.

Relief pitchers other than Brandon Morrow - Soria and Nathan have ERAs below 1.40. That's hard to do. So they win out over Papelbon, who's been great and all...but doesn't have the ridiculous Bobby Thigpen-like season of K-Rod (34 saves) or the eye-popping ERA. Brandon Morrow has an 0.71 ERA, has been dominant and is the ONLY Mariner worthy of one second's worth of consideration for the All-Star Game. Alas, Japanese voters will probably land Ichiro another start.

Most overrepresented: easily the Cleveland Indians. While the Rangers have the same number and are also not playing well, every one of their players is a lock in a just and fair baseball universe, while I could argue that the only Indians player who should make the team is Cliff Lee (who should, undoubtedly, start the All-Star Game, but will inevitably be passed over for someone like Josh Beckett). Sizemore has a pretty strong argument with OPS, HR, SB, and production on a lousy offensive team, but he's no lock in a strong outfield year.

Most underrepresented: The Red Sox have a claim that Pedroia should make the team (he shouldn't, since he plays second base and shortstop), Julio Lugo's not far off the lousy second string shortstops, Mike Lowell's not far behind Evan Longoria, Josh Beckett isn't an awful choice to make the team, and Papelbon has a resume that's better than K-Rod's in all but the number of saves.

The Jury's Hung on: Leaving off John Lackey - John Lackey has been one of the best pitchers in the league since he came off the DL, but nine starts is just not enough. I'm stretching it to include both Rich Harden and Scott Kazmir, so it makes it hard to draw a line.